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Poster
in
Workshop: Bayesian Decision-making and Uncertainty: from probabilistic and spatiotemporal modeling to sequential experiment design

Recursive Nested Filtering for Efficient Amortized Bayesian Experimental Design

Sahel Mohammad Iqbal · Hany Abdulsamad · Sara Perez-Vieites · Simo Sarkka · Adrien Corenflos

Keywords: [ policy optimization. ] [ sequential Monte Carlo ] [ Bayesian experimental design ]


Abstract: This paper introduces the Inside--Out Nested Particle Filter (IO-NPF), a novel, fully recursive, algorithm for amortized sequential Bayesian experimental design in the non-exchangeable setting. We frame policy optimization as maximum likelihood estimation in a non-Markovian state-space model, achieving (at most) $\mathcal{O}(T^2)$ computational complexity in the number of experiments. We provide theoretical convergence guarantees and introduce a backward sampling algorithm to reduce trajectory degeneracy. IO-NPF offers a practical, extensible, and provably consistent approach to sequential Bayesian experimental design, demonstrating improved efficiency over existing methods.

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