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Poster

Length Optimization in Conformal Prediction

Shayan Kiyani · George J. Pappas · Hamed Hassani

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Thu 12 Dec 4:30 p.m. PST — 7:30 p.m. PST

Abstract:

Conditional validity and length efficiency are two crucial aspects of conformal prediction (CP). Achieving conditional validity ensures accurate uncertainty quantification for data subpopulations, while proper length efficiency ensures that the prediction sets remain informative and non-trivial. Despite significant efforts to address each of these issues individually, a principled framework that reconciles these two objectives has been missing the CP literature. In this paper, we develop Conformal Prediction with Length-Optimization (CPL) - a novel framework that constructs prediction sets with (near-) optimal length while ensuring conditional validity under various classes of covariate shifts, including the key cases of marginal and group-conditional coverage. We provide both infinite sample and finite sample guarantees for CPL's conditional validity and length optimality. Our extensive empirical evaluations demonstrate the superior performance of CPL compared to state-of-the-art methods across diverse real-world and synthetic datasets in both classification and regression settings.

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