Poster
Large Language Models Must Be Taught to Know What They Don’t Know
Sanyam Kapoor · Nate Gruver · Manley Roberts · Arka Pal · Samuel Dooley · Katie Collins · Umang Bhatt · Adrian Weller · Micah Goldblum · Andrew Wilson
When using large language models (LLMs) in high-stakes applications, we need to know when we can trust their predictions. Some works argue that prompting highly-capable LLMs is sufficient to produce calibrated uncertainties, while others introduce sampling methods that can be prohibitively expensive. In this work, we first argue that prompting on its own is insufficient to achieve good calibration and then show that fine-tuning on a small dataset of correct and incorrect answers can create an estimate with good generalization and small computational overhead. We show that a thousand graded examples are sufficient to outperform baseline methods and that training through the features of a model is necessary for good performance and tractable for large open-source models when using LoRA. We also investigate the mechanisms that enable LLM uncertainty estimation, finding that many models can be used as general-purpose uncertainty estimators, applicable not just to their own uncertainties but also the uncertainty of other models. Lastly, we show that uncertainty estimates inform human use of LLMs in human-AI collaborative settings through a user study.
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