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Poster

MGF: Mixed Gaussian Flow for Diverse Trajectory Prediction

Jiahe Chen · Jinkun Cao · Dahua Lin · Kris Kitani · Jiangmiao Pang

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Fri 13 Dec 4:30 p.m. PST — 7:30 p.m. PST

Abstract:

To predict future trajectories, the normalizing flow with a standard Gaussian prior suffers from weak diversity. The ineffectiveness comes from the conflict between the fact of asymmetric and multi-modal distribution of likely outcomes and symmetric and single-modal original distribution and supervision losses. Instead, we propose constructing a mixed Gaussian prior for a normalizing flow model for trajectory prediction. The prior is constructed by analyzing the trajectory patterns in the training samples without requiring extra annotations while showing better expressiveness and being multi-modal and asymmetric. Besides diversity, it also provides better controllability for probabilistic trajectory generation. We name our method Mixed Gaussian Flow (MGF). It achieves state-of-the-art performance in the evaluation of both trajectory alignment and diversity on the popular UCY/ETH and SDD datasets. The illustration video, source code, and checkpoints to better explain and reproduce the results are available in the supplementary materials.

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