Poster
in
Workshop: Statistical Frontiers in LLMs and Foundation Models
Predictive Inference in Multi-environment Scenarios
John Duchi · Suyash Gupta · Kuanhao Jiang · Pragya Sur
Keywords: [ Conformal prediction ] [ hierarchical sampling ] [ multi-environment settings. ] [ distribution-free inference ]
We address the challenge of constructing valid confidence intervals and sets in problems of prediction across multiple environments. Weinvestigate two types of coverage suitable for these problems, extending thejackknife and split-conformal methods to show how to obtain distributionfree coverage in such non-traditional, hierarchical data-generating scenarios.Our contributions also include extensions for settings with non-real-valuedresponses and a theory of consistency for predictive inference in these general problems. We demonstrate a novel resizing method to adapt to problemdifficulty, which applies both to existing approaches for predictive inferencewith hierarchical data and the methods we develop; this reduces predictionset sizes using limited information from the test environment, a key to themethods’ practical performance, which we evaluate through neurochemicalsensing and species classification datasets.